Future value
How to model crypto future value with DCA
Single-number price targets are wrong by definition. Modeling future value with DCA across explicit scenarios gives you a defensible range to plan against. Here is how to do it correctly.
Step 1: define the scenarios first, prices last
Most DCA models start with a price assumption. That is backwards. Define the scenario narratives first: bear continuation, base case cycle, bull acceleration, shock event. Then assign price paths consistent with each. This stops you from anchoring on a single number.
Step 2: model contributions as a stream, not a lump
Convert your DCA into monthly buys at the projected scenario price. Track cost basis cumulatively. Track shares accumulated, not dollars deployed. This is what reveals the bear-case advantage of DCA: more shares accumulated at lower prices, which compound in the recovery.
Step 3: include yield, but only the yield you actually earn
If you are staking, compound the network reward rate on the staked share of each asset. Use the actual rate, not the marketing APY. ETH staking is around 3-4%, not 8%. SOL is 6-7%. Honest assumptions produce defensible numbers.
Step 4: report the range, not the average
The output of a real model is a table: bear ending value, base ending value, bull ending value, and shock peak drawdown. Averaging them produces a number nobody will ever see. The range is what you actually plan around.
Step 5: tie it to your portfolio health score
A 10-year projection is meaningless if your portfolio cannot survive year 2. Always check your 12-dimension health score alongside the projection. A high projection on a 38 health score is a warning, not a plan.
What the output should look like
Run all of this with one click in the future value calculator. The output is a four-column table per time horizon with peak drawdown, ending value, cost basis, and effective IRR.
FAQ
What time horizon should I model?+
Run 5, 10, and 15 years. The 5-year window is most sensitive to entry timing and DCA pace. The 15-year window dampens timing and reveals the compounding effect of contributions and yield.
How do I pick scenario assumptions?+
Anchor to historical cycles. Bear continuation often resembles 2018-2019 conditions. Base case approximates the average of the last three cycles. Bull acceleration uses 2017 or 2021 peaks. Shock uses a 60-80% drawdown comparable to a major exchange or stablecoin failure.
Should I model the same DCA in every scenario?+
Yes. The point of scenario modeling is to hold behavior constant and let market conditions vary. If you change your DCA between scenarios you are no longer comparing the same plan.
Run scenarios on your real plan in 60 seconds.
Set your contributions, your asset mix, and your APY. See bear, base, and bull projections side by side.
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